My Retirement Calculator

Use this free Retirement Calculator to model your portfolio with historical S&P 500 data and multiple withdrawal strategies. Compare the 4% Rule, Guyton-Klinger Guardrails, and Variable Percentage Withdrawal to find the approach that best fits your risk tolerance. Calculate sustainable retirement income, portfolio longevity, and real-vs-nominal withdrawals in minutes.

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Longevity ? How long the portfolio lasted. Shows if it survived the full simulation period or depleted early

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End Portfolio ? Final portfolio value at the end of the simulation period

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Total Withdrawals ? Sum of all withdrawals taken throughout the entire simulation period

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Avg Withdrawal ? Average annual withdrawal amount across all years in the simulation

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Max Drawdown ? Largest percentage decline from peak portfolio value to trough during the simulation

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Worst Year ? Year with the lowest market return during the simulation period

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Best Decade ? Highest 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) during the simulation period

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Advanced Metrics
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Withdrawal Rates ? Withdrawal rates as a percentage of portfolio value: initial rate at start, median across all years, maximum rate reached, and final year rate

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Initial / Median / Max / Final

Sequence Risk ? Risk from poor market returns early in retirement. Compares first decade average returns vs overall period to assess if bad timing could deplete portfolio faster

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Peak Burn Rate ? The highest withdrawal amount taken in any single year during the simulation period

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Recovery Time ? Number of years it took for the portfolio to recover to within 99% of its peak after experiencing the worst drawdown

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Years to recover from worst drawdown

Safe Zone Years ? Number of years the portfolio remained above 80% of its previous peak. Higher percentages indicate more stability with fewer deep drawdowns.

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Inflation Impact ? Average annual inflation rate (CAGR) over the simulation period and comparison of real vs nominal total withdrawals

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Total Fees/Tax Drag ? Cumulative dollar amount lost to fees, taxes, and other portfolio costs over the entire simulation period

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Cumulative cost over simulation
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Annual Withdrawals
Year Age Portfolio Note
Run simulation to see milestones

Adjust Inputs
$750K Portfolio
4.0% Rate
50 Years

About This Retirement Calculator

This free retirement calculator helps you plan a sustainable retirement income from your portfolio. Enter your savings, target withdrawal, and time horizon to see how long your money lasts using historical S&P 500 returns and research-backed withdrawal strategies — the 4% Rule, Guyton-Klinger Guardrails, and Variable Percentage Withdrawal. Find the strategy that fits your risk tolerance and retirement goals. Read our in-depth retirement withdrawal guide →

How the math works

Instead of assuming a flat average return, this calculator replays your retirement starting from a historical year you choose — anywhere from 1929 to today — using that era's actual year-by-year S&P 500 returns and inflation. The simulation applies your withdrawal each year and tracks the portfolio's real trajectory through that period's booms, crashes, and inflation spikes, showing whether it lasted the full horizon (and if not, when it ran out). Move the Start Year slider to test different historical periods — like starting retirement in 1929, 1966, or 2000 — and compare how each one would have played out. A quick mental model is the 25x rule — multiply your annual spending by 25 to estimate the portfolio that supports a 4% initial withdrawal rate.

How long will my retirement savings last?

It depends on your withdrawal rate, investment returns, and the order in which those returns arrive. This calculator backtests your plan against actual historical S&P 500 returns, so you can see how your portfolio would have held up through real market crashes, recoveries, and inflation spikes rather than relying on a single average-return assumption.

How much money do I need to retire?

A common starting point is 25 times your expected annual spending, based on the 4% rule. If you plan to spend $60,000 per year, that suggests a portfolio of about $1.5 million. Your actual number depends on your withdrawal strategy, other income sources like Social Security or pensions, and how long your retirement may last.

What is the 4% rule?

The 4% rule says you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. It comes from the Trinity Study, which found this approach survived nearly every historical 30-year period for a balanced stock-and-bond portfolio. It is a planning guideline, not a guarantee.

Which withdrawal strategy is best?

There is no single best strategy — each trades income stability against portfolio safety. The 4% rule gives predictable income but ignores market conditions. Guyton-Klinger Guardrails adjust withdrawals up or down when the portfolio drifts outside set boundaries. Variable Percentage Withdrawal always takes a percentage of the current balance, so income fluctuates but the portfolio rarely runs out.

What is sequence of returns risk?

Sequence of returns risk is the danger that poor market returns early in retirement permanently damage your portfolio, even if long-run average returns are fine. Withdrawing from a portfolio during a downturn locks in losses. This is why two retirees with identical average returns can have very different outcomes depending on when the bad years occur.

Does this retirement calculator account for inflation?

Yes. Withdrawals are modeled in inflation-adjusted terms, so the income shown represents constant purchasing power. Historical simulations use the actual inflation recorded alongside each market period, which captures eras like the 1970s where high inflation was the main threat to retirees.

Where to Go From Here

Knowing how long your money lasts is half the plan — the other half is getting there. Work out how much of your income to set aside with the Savings Rate Calculator, see how your nest egg compounds on the way with the Compound Interest Estimator, or check whether you could retire earlier than planned with the FIRE Calculator. To sanity-check your withdrawal assumptions against inflation, the CPI Calculator shows how purchasing power has actually eroded over time.

This tool is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Results are estimates based on historical data and the assumptions you enter — past performance does not guarantee future results.